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To be able to win elections, D.A. Alliance needs to prove its strength
Arthur SUCIUThe time when the Social Democrat Party (PSD) was comfortably leading in opinion polls has gone. The ruling party returned to the first position after the drop that followed the local elections, yet the margin, of just a few percentage points, to the National Liberal Party (PNL) -Democrat Party (PD) D.A. Alliance keeps it under pressure until the elections day. The battle will be particularly tighter as, unlike PSD, the Alliance has not fired so far many electoral "shots."
The Alliance's strategic withdrawal Analysts were expecting a veritable political and media attack to be launched by the D.A. Alliance, as a natural consequence of the upward trend which took shape in the local elections. After a period of uncertainty and efforts to reposition, this expectation was not confirmed. For mainly strategic reasons, the Alliance would not take the lead in the electoral campaign; furthermore, it shut off the attack and counterattack cycles imposed by PSD. This strategic withdrawal suggested that PNL and PD failed in their repositioning project. Although one cannot speak, after the local elections, about a quasi-dominant PSD and an Alliance with insufficient political visibility, both PSD and the Alliance have preserved a certain self-perception inertia. The way in which the ruling party has managed to upset the results of elections for the county councils, and later on the alliance with PUR and extension of the protocol with UDMR, the mounting electoral campaign through PSD's introducing a direct negative campaign line put a cap on the Alliance's impetus. Under the new circumstances, PNL and PD's conduct is similar to the one before the elections. Therefore, the political attack was called off. Separately, in spite of all efforts to change its image, PSD is facing a growing blockage. Polls conducted by CURS revealed that announcing Adrian Adrian Năstase's candidature to the presidential office did not increase his, or his party's electoral scores. Onthe contrary, after the party leading structure was changed and the Special Congress was organised, the PSD leader went down 3 percent in polls. While PSD is making tremendous efforts to stay first in polls, the Alliance, without much trouble, is only one step behind. The ruling party did, for the time being, slow down the Alliance; but what will happen when PNL and PD get to start their engines? ADA incorporation terms The PNL-PD D.A. Alliance was established against the political background outlined after the elections in 2000. This background was defined by two major coordinates: the ruling party had grown oversized, while PRM, an undemocratic party, became the party with the second largest parliamentary presence. On the one hand, the political gamut had lost its balance on account of Corneliu Vadim Tudor's unexpected success; on the other hand, the ruling party had taken a too authoritarian attitude during its rule. The natural option for the two parties in the democratic Opposition, in this case, was to become allies. The basis of this alliance is therefore generated by political constraints. A comparative look at the contexts in which the current D.A. Alliance and the former CDR operated would be worth while. In 1996, when CDR won the elections, PRM was in power, jointly with PDSR (current PSD). Now, PRM is in the Opposition and undergoes and image democratisation process. In the same year, PDSR was a party which had isolated Romania at an international level. Today, PSD is a member of the Socialist International (SI) and under the incumbent Government the country joined NATO. While CDR was a democratic alliance, in which political parties of all orientations, represented or not in the Parliament, took part, D.A. Alliance is mainly defined in ethical terms ("Justice and Truth") and it only includes 2 parties, PNL and PD, both being parliamentary parties. Just as today's PSD is no longer the PDSR back then, the D.A. Alliance is not the former CDR. Short term offensive It is quite clear that, in spite of its alliance with PUR, PSD cannot rise in polls by more than 2-3 percent. Even if at present inner conflicts in PSD are not violent, they are still a hidden brake to the ruling party. PSD's capacity to persuade voters has dropped. The ruling party is only kept up and running by the propaganda oxygen balls. On the other hand, the Alliance has growth potential which it does not, or cannot capitalise on, either because of the force of PSD's defence, or because of inner problems. In a certain sense, the PSD media blockade has not been broken through, and PNL and PD must find a solution to this problem. One of these solutions could be a powerful short-term offensive, in the electoral campaign, to take full advantage of the mass-media chaos in the respective period. Such a strategy was very useful in the campaign for the local elections in Bucharest, when the Alliance's candidates managed to go up several tens of percentage points in only two weeks. Making ready to take over power A D.A. Alliance electoral offensive liable to turn the elections results to its favour is possible if, for the first time, the Alliance managed to convey some of the image of its strength. PNL and PD leaders must come up with their own convincing explanation of Romanian facts. Through its strategic withdrawal, the Alliance managed to give an articulate indication of the fact that it disjoined the PSD interpretation. Yet this is only a negative definition, and the Alliance has to offer voters its own set of criteria for interpretation, which means a new project and a new vision. The Alliance must prove that its withdrawal from PSD was the consequence of a difference in vision and not the proof of its weakness, at a time that the Alliance is no longer perceived as weak.In the new political context, the ethical message that laid at the basis of the PNL-PD Alliance establishment is no longer enough, and ADA must persuade voters that it can still rule in Romania. More than ever before, the Alliance needs to be seen as a ruling party. What matters is not the governing programme or the leaders able to implement it, but the feeling that the Alliance can rule. Corollary for the coming elections Most likely the coming elections will be waged on the TV screen, in direct broadcast debates between Năstase and Theodor Stolojan. Considering that the Alliance's strength has been so far its moral component, Theodor Stolojan, as representative of the Alliance's values, is expected to take a head-start. As long as Theodor Stolojan manages to grant outstanding weight to his words and attitudes, the discourse on governance promoted by Adrian Năstase will lose ground. The ability to undertake a moral discourse is the main weakness of the PSD candidate both with the electorate and as a representative model for Ion Iliescu's heir (with his famous "poor and honest" line). While for the Alliance on the whole proving its strength is crucial, for the would-be candidate the moral discourse will be decisive.
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Revolutia din decembrie 89: Pacatul originar, sacrificiul fondator este prima carte dintr-o serie de sapte volume dedicate ultimelor doua decenii din istoria României. Nu am pretentia ca sunt detinatorul unui adevar politic, juridic sau istoric incontestabil, si sunt gata sa discut si sa accept orice documente, fapte sau marturii care pot lumina mai bine sau chiar altfel realitatea. Educatia mea stiintifica si religioasa m-a ajutat sa cercetez faptele în mod obiectiv, eliberat de ura sau intoleranta. Recunosc însa o anume încrâncenare în ceea ce am scris venita din durerea unui om care a trait în miezul evenimentelor si se simte lovit de acceptarea cinica a crimelor, abuzurilor, coruptiei si minciunii, sau de indiferenta la fel de cinica cu care sunt înca privite de catre o mare parte a societatii românesti.... Am scris aceste carti de pe pozitia victimelor mintite sau speriate, care nu-si cunosc sau nu-si pot apara drepturile. Le-am scris de pe pozitia milioanelor de români cinstiti care cred în adevar, în dreptate si în demnitate. Emil Constantinescu (text preluat din Introducerea cartii).
MINTEA CEA SOCOTITOARE
de academician Mircea Malita, Editura Academiei Române, 2009 În volumul de eseuri Mintea cea socotitoare, aparut la Editura Academiei Române, acad. Mircea Malita formuleaza în crescendo o serie de întrebari grave ale timpului nostru: Daca omul este rational, de ce se fac atâtea greseli în economie
sau în politica?; Daca rationalitatea nu e de ajuns, care ar fi rolul întelepciunii?; Din viitorul imprevizibil putem smulge portiuni, daca nu certe, cel putin probabile?; Ce si cum învatam pregatindu-ne pentru viitorul nostru?; Este în stare omenirea sa îsi vindece crizele?; Ne asteapta oare un dezastru final? s.a. De-a lungul anilor, acad. Mircea Malita a staruit asupra acestor teme în lucrari recunoscute, însa acum o face raportându-se la dinamica realitatii imediate, inspirat de cuvintele lui Dimitrie Cantemir: socoteala mintii mele, lumina dinlauntrul capului. Eseurile sunt structurate pe patru parti - Mintea senina, Metaforele mintii, Mintea învolburata si Privind înainte. Finalul este de un optimism lucid care tine seama de potentialul de rationalitate si imaginatie al mintii umane si, fireste, de generatiile tinere care îl pot valoriza benefic.
Această carte de poezie este seismograful de mare sensibilitate care înregistrează cele două întâlniri ale sufletului, deopotrivă cu URÂTUL care ne schilodește ca ființă, ca neam, dar și cu FRUMUSEȚEA sufletească nepoluată ce stă ca o fântână cu apă curată pe un câmp plin cu peturi și gunoaie nedegradabile. Ce poate fi mai dureros decât să surprinzi această fibră distrusă de aluviunile istorice încărcate de lașități, inerții, apatii, compromisuri devenite congenitale ale românului? Vibrația versurilor, directețea lor, simplitatea dusă până în marginea cotidianului paradoxal n-au efect distructiv asupra tonusului moral al cititorului, ci produc neliniștea cea bună, cum ar spune Sfinții Părinți. Citești în revolta și durerea poetei un mănunchi admirabil de calități: o demnitate neînfrântă, o fiziologie a verticalității și, mai ales, o inimă creștină, o inimă din ceruri, cum ar spune poetul latin. Căci, în această inimă din ceruri, există lacrimi deopotrivă pentru românul umilit, distrus până și-n visele lui, dar și pentru copilul din Gaza, cu sufletul și trupul chircite sub șenilele tancurilor unui război ce tinde să devină mai lung decât viața lui, ale unui război-viață, lacrimi pentru copilul evreu ce nu a putut fi salvat de la deportarea bestială, lacrimi pentru Tibetul sfâșiat. Și toate acestea fără impostura unui ecumenism sentimental, ci izvorâte din acel suspin curat românesc ce face esența lacrimii creștine. (Dan Puric)
ISLAMUL SI SOARTA LUMII - Fundamentalismul islamic ca ideologie politica de Virginia Mircea "Islamul si soarta lumii - Fundamendamentalismul ca ideologie politca invita la o reflectie mai adanca asupra porceselor lumii contemporane. Judecata critica si independenta a autoarei a produs o lucrare de o veritabila investigatie stiintifica, exact la momentul in care tema tratata deseori fara solutii si perspective ocupa scena din fata a politicii si problemelor mondiale. Cititorii o pot aseza cu satisfactie in bliblioteca lor de referinta. Vor fi mult ajutati in intelegerea evenimentelor care ne sesizeaza in prezent si intr-un viitor in care tema nu se va desprinde de mersul lumii contemporane." (academician Mircea Malita)